“The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October,” the report for October 2023 said. “The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending-due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments-to tip the US economy into a very short recession,” said the report for October 2023, released today. Today’s LEI predicts a recession in the “near term.” We here at WOLF STREET have been on recession watch since about mid-2022, and we’re still watching, and so this is fascinating and hilarious. It didn’t predict the pandemic recession because that wasn’t a business-cycle recession but a pandemic with a lockdown that suddenly shut parts of the economy down instead of predicting it, it reacted simultaneously with it, which is how it should have reacted. ![]() It predicted the 2001 recession and the Great Recession. ![]() ![]() And there’s Still No Recession! By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.Įvery month, the Conference Board publishes its “Leading Economic Index” (LEI), which is a leading indicator for turning points in the business cycle and is designed to predict business-cycle recessions.
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